Wild Card Weekend

Are you ready to rumble?

Every NFL season lately, I’ve been wondering if this is the year the Bills take it all. And this year I think their chances are slim to none... unless the Chargers beat the Pats. Of course, the Bills have to first get through the Jags. In order to do that, they better not run Cook between the tackles, as the Bills love to do on first and/or second down, as the Jags have one of the best defences against the run in the league. On the other hand, the Bills can’t beat the Jags without a run game. If they insist on running Cook up the middle, the Bills will be punting a lot. So their options are to run him off tackle or swing it out to him. If the Jags anticipate the latter, and I expect they will, look for a potential pick six off of Allen. If the Bills anticipate that the Jags will anticipate the Bills swinging it out to Cook, which they had better, then Allen will have to be prepared to ground the ball or run it himself if an outside linebacker or cornerback reads the play. Keeping Cook to the outside will serve to keep the outside linebackers and cornerbacks tight to scrimmage, which should open up his receivers downfield. That’s the way I see the Bills winning or losing to the Jags. The Bills can only win if Allen is on the field more than he is on the sidelines and they avoid turnovers. Yah, I’d like to see the Bills finally win it all. Unlikely though.

Be that as it may, let’s assume the Bills get by the Jags, and the Chargers lose. Then the Bills travel to Mile High Stadium to face the Broncos. If so, I hope they have a lot of oxygen tanks at their bench. They are going to need them. I doubt the Bills would get by them in any case. However, if the Chargers can beat the Pats, and I sure hope they do, because no one is more deserving of a playoff win than Justin Herbert, who is perhaps the most underrated QB in the league in my books. More importantly for the Bills, if the Chargers get by the Pats, then the Chargers will have to face the Broncos, and being that those two teams are in the same division, Herbert knows better than Allen how to make life difficult on the Broncos’ secondary. I anticipate that would be the tougher game for the Broncs. Moreover, that would leave the Bills facing either the Steelers or the Texans, which I think would give them a much better chance of advancing to the Conference final, and a better chance of beating the Broncos if the Broncs get past the Chargers (which I anticipate they would). As much as I like the Texans (best defence in the league) and as much as I like Aaron Rogers, TJ Metcalf and Mike Tomlin, I doubt either of those teams will make it to the Conference final, and, if you haven’t gathered it by now, I’m hoping neither will the Pats, but if the Chargers don’t beat them, they likely will end up in the Conference final with the Broncos. That’s my take on the AFC. Well, almost. Can’t count the Jags out yet. Trevor Lawrence is having one heck of a season. Can he out-Allen Josh Allen? Nice matchup.

As for the NFC, best game of the year, imho, was the Seahawks amazing come-from-behind victory in overtime against the Rams a few weeks back. The Rams on paper are the better team, but because they lost that game, the ‘hawks got the bye, and the Rams ended up being the 5th seed. Good news for the Rams is that they get to face the Panthers, who really have only a slight right of being in the playoffs at all, given that they won the worst division in the NFL, so that first game should be a blowout on top of a cakewalk. I won’t even bother to watch that one. If the Panthers beat the Rams, that would be the upset of the decade. "No-o-o-o-o chancee, Mis-tah Whalen."¹

Then, from the toughest division in the league, we have the 49ers who have to face the Eagles. Ouch. Too bad the ‘9ers are so beat up, otherwise I think they would have a real strong chance, but as they are not healthy, I doubt they can pull it off without short field possessions and turnovers. Eagles will likely advance as well. That leaves the Packers and da Bears, the NFC counterpart this year to the AFC Texans and Steelers. I’d call that one a toss up as well, but whoever wins is also unlikely to advance past the division round, as I doubt either team would be capable of beating the ‘hawks, Rams, or the Eagles. Question is, which of those three teams are most likely to meet one of those two? I don’t know…

Well, I just took a closer look at the seedings. If the Bears win, they would face the Rams, likely another easy win for them, then the ‘hawks and Eagles get to slug it out. If the Packers win, they face Sam Darnold, who knows them well, and Seattle cruises into the Conference final, leaving the Rams to slug it out with the Eagles. In that case, if the Rams win in a tough one, which I think they would, and can get by the Eagles relatively injury-free, they would earn themselves a revenge/redemption match with the ‘hawks, and I think the winner of that game would go on to win the Super Bowl. If that is what it comes down to, despite the ‘hawks being local favourites, I have to go with Matthew Stafford, the best QB in league history still in uniform, and the Rams.

I’d be remiss though, if I didn’t mention Grey Zabel, the Seahawks’ stellar rookie left guard. When I watch NFL football, I usually watch the box as each play unfolds. That is where games are mostly won and lost, amongst the big men on the offensive and defensive lines. I must say, I haven’t seen a talent like Zabel that I enjoy watching more in as long as I can remember (and I’ve been watching since before the AFL merged with the NFL). If Seattle wins the Super Bowl, he will be a big reason.

My hope, whatever the case may be, is that no players suffer serious injury, and no team wins or loses on a bad call or an unforced error. Let’s play ball!

Break! Hike!

Photo credit: Brooke Sutton/NFL

1. The immortal Mr. Moto (Tor Kamata), to the peerless Ed Whelan, Stampede Wrestling circa 1964.